Hezbollah Remaining Strong in Lebanon Key to Regional Stability: Analyst
“Hezbollah remaining strong in Lebanon is key to stability in the region, in other words this balance of power between the Israeli Entity and Hezbollah and the deterrent formula of war has kept this small country and the Middle East calm for over decade,” Hussain Al-Mousawy told IQNA in an interview.
Following is the full text of the interview:
IQNA: Lebanon's first parliamentary vote in nine years was held last week, with over 500 candidates vying for seats. Turnout was 49.2 percent, according to officials. What’s your take on the election and its results?
Al-Mousawy: Holding the general elections solely was a major achievement for the Lebanese state, after nine years of political unrest due to the spillover of violence in neighboring Syria, most notably terrorist groups’ activity within the country and ways to confront such a threat. Lebanon’s successful electoral exercise also reflects the fact that, despite aggressive rhetoric, neither local nor regional powers want to escalate their regional conflicts. The relatively peaceful atmosphere is also a reflection of the effectiveness and professionalism of the Lebanese security forces. The low turnout however signaled that Lebanese people (mainly Christian and Sunni voters) had lost hope that their small Mediterranean country can prevail. The results came a shock to many, given the new proportional system allows newcomers and infiltration of votes into candidate lists.
IQNA: Results showed that the Hezbollah resistance movement and its political allies secured over half of the seats. How much do you think this victory by Hezbollah can help boost security in the Middle East?
Al-Mousawy: Yes, indeed, Hezbollah and the political allies hold up 67 out of the 128 seats at parliament, hence allowing it to form a government and hold key ministerial positions. Hezbollah remaining strong in Lebanon is key to stability in the region, in other words this balance of power between the Israeli Entity and Hezbollah and the deterrent formula of war has kept this small country and the Middle East calm for over decade. Maintaining this formula is a red line for Hezbollah, and a massive head ache for Israel.
IQNA: After the results were announced, Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad al-Hariri said his party, supported by Saudi Arabia, had lost a third of seats in the elections, winning only 21 seats. Do you think Hariri’s loss was a defeat for Riyadh?
Al-Mousawy: Saudi Arabia’s policy in Lebanon has been going downhill for quite some time now. Last fall, the kingdom’s brash crown prince tried to force a confrontation by kidnapping Lebanon’s Sunni prime minister and coercing his resignation on live television. The gambit failed, and Hariri returned to his office in Beirut (albeit weakened). Today, the kingdom is in wait-and-see mode as Hariri works to form his next government—but they are not spoiling for a fight. Riyadh’s second defeat in less than six months will force the kingdom to offer concessions while cabinet formations discussions take place this week.
IQNA: Also recently, over 7,000 Iraqi candidates contested 329 seats in the parliament that will choose a new president, premier and government in the Arab country. What is your take on Iraq’s elections in first polls after Daesh elimination?
Al-Mousawy: Last Saturday, Iraqis took to the polls in the country’s national elections, which followed years of suffering under Daesh and Saudi-sponsored groups operating in the oil-rich country. A degree of optimism was beginning to move through parts of the country, but the Sairun bloc, led by influential cleric Sayyed Moqtada Al Sadr, has, however, shocked observers by emerging as the frontrunner. Results suggest that Iraqis want to move towards civic-based politics that encompass people regardless of their background and sect. The decline in voter turnout perhaps reflects the widespread dissatisfaction that many Iraqis still feel towards the current Iraqi political class. Endemic corruption along with a complete lack of effective governance affected confidence in voters that the elections would deliver a government that could provide job opportunities and public services. We also cannot deny that there remain a number of intra-sectarian fragmentations in Iraq’s current political climate and there is, as yet, no obvious outcome for government formation in the country. This sentiment, which characterizes Iraqis’ attitude towards the country’s politics, has allowed populism in the form of Al Sadr’s bloc to take the elections by storm. This places him in a unique position as kingmaker as negotiations get underway for the formation of Iraq’s government. Amid all the political amalgamations and formulations, the results should act as a wake-up call for political elites that Iraqis want an emphatic move away from sectarianism. They suggest Iraqis increasingly want to move towards civic-based politics that encompass people regardless of their background and sect.
